lundi 19 décembre 2011

Would those changes be a a question of cycles?

According to Milankovic, climate change would be due to three main astronomical factors.
Those are the orbital shape, the ellipse formed by the Earth's orbit is more or less offset by the laws of the attraction of the planets with each other (Newton). the eccentricity varies from 0005 to 0058. This component varies over a period of 413,000 years and implications for the aphelion and perihelion.

On the right, maximum eccentricity, on the left minimum
(Wikipedia,  2011)

The Axial tilt (obliquity)  can vary from 22.1 24.2 ° in a cycle of about 41,000 years. Differences in tilt affect the amount of solar radiation received on land in summer and winter will be greater the tilt, the greater will be marked seasons (hot summers, cold winters) and vice versa. However, these changes are mainly felt at the poles because the equator where the obliquity has little influence, only the intensity of wet and dry seasons vary.
 Variation of earth obliquity (wikipedia,2011)
The apsidal precession :During its rotation on itself, the earth is subject to the pull of the moon (nudation, tides) and the sun. Indeed, because of its "equatorial bulge", the earth does not turn itself on steadily but as a top. This has an influence on the indication of the terrestrial North Pole (a Usrae Minoris for the moment). During the rotation the "top" of the top will form a circle from the north celestial pole. the north-south axis is therefore a complete circle in 25,760 years.
the consequences are not specifically climate but it affects the precession of the equinoxes ie astronomically, winter is not always on December 21 and the astronomical seasons vary.

File:Precession and seasons.jpg
Precessions and seasons (Wikipedia, 2011)
Those factors have influences on climate when combined. The main influences are  the amount of solar radIation on earth, the temperature of ocean and continents and hemisphere because of the albedo and glacial cycles as well.
 Indeed glacial cycles are directly influenced by astronomical forcing. Each glacial period interspersed by warming period since. last 4.5 billion years have been throught by seven ice ages even cut into warming period and ice ages.
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Ice ages and warming period since the earth creation (Glaciers-climat)

So, this raises the question of liability with respect to climate change, those that occurred in the past and those we are currently experiencing. In my opinion human beings are mainly responsible of current climate changes trying to control and utilize nature at the maximum. First recordedclimate change have indeed been observed in the late würm and early holocene period. As we seen before it was the start of anthropocene and it never stopped since then. Although natural cycle have imporant consequences, human beings aggravte them and the Alps and other sensitive areas could change irreversibly in the comming decades.

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